Silver prices fluctuate rangebound, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market [SMM Weekly Review of Silver Market]

On the macro front, after the US Fed released its June meeting minutes on Wednesday, it hinted that policymakers were only considering one interest rate cut rather than the two expected by investors. Despite the US dollar holding steady, silver prices still trended slightly lower. Under the dual pressures of inflation and trade wars, the medium-and-long-term appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets hedging against economic uncertainties remained intact, with gold prices stopping falling and stabilizing before silver prices also found support.

[Economic Data]

Bearish: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 4 stood at 7.07 million barrels, exceeding expectations of 3.845 million barrels and the prior week's -2.071 million barrels.

Bullish: The New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for June came in at 3.02%, down from 3.20% previously and below the expected 3.13%.

[Spot Market] Silver: This week saw silver prices fluctuate rangebound, weakening briefly mid-week following downward revisions to US Fed interest rate cut expectations, though the medium-and-long-term bullish precious metals trend remains intact. The short-term breakout direction for silver prices remains unclear, but support at 8,500 yuan/kg from the previous low appears moderate, and prices may continue to hold up well after a short-term pullback. In the domestic spot market, downstream silver ingot transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement this week. Regarding spot transaction prices, Shanghai-area national standard silver ingots were quoted at a premium of 2-3 yuan/kg over TD or a discount of 7-10 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2508 contract, while large-plant silver ingots carried a 3-5 yuan/kg premium over TD. However, as spot-futures price spreads narrowed approaching week's end, some suppliers reduced national standard silver ingot premiums to near parity for liquidation. Only isolated downstream enterprises bought the dip after mid-week price corrections, with most traders adopting a wait-and-see stance leading to thinner trading volumes.

PV: This week, solar cell rear-side silver paste reference prices averaged 5,650-5,737 yuan/kg; solar cell front-side finger reference prices averaged 8,509-8,640 yuan/kg; and solar cell front-side busbar reference prices averaged 8,459-8,590 yuan/kg.

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